Betting Advice (3 of 8) - Speed Maps

This article originally appeared in a series called "Punting Pointers" at this link. We want to share it with our customers as it is very important advice to help you bet better.

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This is part three of an eight-part series aimed at educating punters to help take their wagering to the next level. Brad Gray sought the insights of five of the most respected industry figures when it comes to punting, form analysis and bookmaking.

Speed maps are a big part of a modern-day punter’s arsenal allowing for analysts to predict a horse’s position in running.

However, like punting as a whole, it’s not an exact science and there is no right or wrong way.

As you’ll find out from the below there are still plenty of ways to come to a wagering conclusion.

 

Dominic Beirne (@domran)

In addition to mapping on a grid where each horse will be relative to the other horses, I quantify the speed compared to a standard, and by doing that I get a much fuller impression of how the race will play out, as well as the challenge that faces all of the runners and the jockeys.

I use speed maps to interpret how a race will be run, where the horses will be relative to each other and the race shape that will unfold to find out who is best suited.

The speed map grid provides the race profile, and we know the profile of all the horses and it's then down to finding the runners with profiles that fit that of the race.

There is a definite relationship in Australian racing with horses closer to the lead having a higher finishing position.

So yes, there are better opportunities in regards to backing winners towards the front of the race. Having said that, there are speed maps that look poisonous to leaders where you want to back the horse towards the tail.

Those two statements are price/value dependent. It’s rare to want to back a favourite that looks poison on a speed map but I will be quite forgiving of decently priced horses that don’t have a favourable speed map.

I’m not going to forgo an opportunity to bet at a good price if it’s value for all of the other factors.

If all the other factors amount to a horse being true value I won’t let the speed map or barrier deny me a bet on the horse.


Racing NSW publishes stewards' speed maps for metro meetings.

speedmap2.jpg

 

Rob Waterhouse (@RobWaterhouse)

The tricky part is getting the speed map right, that’s the hard part. Simply, the most important thing is to work out how much speed will be in the race and that’s a large part of it.

I reckon I’ve done speed maps for 30 years and used to spend lots of time doing them and then I experimented 20 years ago with computers using pace ratings.

Now the computer does a better job without me even thinking about them.

People are quick to put people in categories and most say that I like leaders but I have great success in betting in races with lots of pace and finding backmarkers.

I just like the horses that have got the biggest advantage. Often they’ll be leaders but sometimes not.

 

Missinglettr

Nathan Snow (@snowbet)

I’m big on speed maps. They are one of the key pillars of how I do the form. Mainly because in modern racing there is so little between the horses after the handicaps.

The fields are very competitive and there are always a number of horses that can win each race so, therefore, run of the race becomes really important.

As a general rule the faster the pace the more it is going to suit backmarkers and vice versa but this isn’t always the case. This is where knowing horses as individuals, what they are suited to and how they like to be ridden, comes into play.

There is something called the shape of the race – will a horse be in a good spot, bad spot, following good horses, following bad horses?

They are all individuals so each horse will be better suited under different scenarios - it’s just knowing what they are suited to and what the race is likely to look like.

You can get maps drawn up but they are never exact. It’s all about getting a feel for where they are going to be and what is more likely to happen than not.

I always start with the front and the gates and then behind them you flop them out from inside to out.

Most trainers are more positive from inside draws and negative from outside draws. It’s just the way they are conditioned. I do my video review first then I’ll do the map and then delve into the form.

I am flexible but there is a lot of merit in being up and out of trouble especially if they are fit and ready.

Designated leaders themselves I’m not real rapped on because they can be one dimensional. I love a horse capable of stalking with good gate speed that can take a sit and be tractable.


Speed maps come in many different forms:

speedmap1.jpg

 

Daniel O’Sullivan (@TRBHorseRacing)

They are the first step in everything. I’m not one to go to the nth degree of plotting where I think a horse will definitely settle.

I prefer to look at maps from the perspective of 150m after the start and roughly where each horse is likely to be.

Across the line, which horses will get easy runs without the jockey making any decisions, which jockeys are going to face the need to make an early tactical decision and which horse looks like settling further forward or back than what we typically see.

Obviously, I am interested in potential pressure but once I’ve established the very front and the very back I tend not to worry about the ones in between, just noting who might face tough decisions.

It’s so speculative and can all change as soon as the gates open.

Going back 12-13 years now my number one thing was to primarily focus on on-pace and handy horses and put a line through backmarkers.

If I really liked a backmarker that doesn’t mean I’d look to bet against it, I’d just usually move onto the next race.

These days, with the benefit of more experience, I am more flexible especially if I think the track pattern is suitable but as an underlying principal for a long time, I’ve been about on pace, handy.

That was the thing that elevated me to the punter I am now. I went from being like the large majority of people somewhere between small losses and small wins but once I honed in on that, I took massive steps forward.

A lot of it is discipline. If you really like a horse for whatever reason and it is going to settle back – to have the discipline to pass on them.

I went through a process for probably about five years where I kept a very simple record of those horses that I passed on purely on the basis of running style and those horses lost money and that was the final factor that decided it for me.

It reaffirmed that I was doing the right thing. It proved beyond doubt that you are better off avoiding those horses.

 

John Walter (@J_Walter23)

It’s probably the most important thing these days. Maps are a lot harder to get right than people give them credit for though.

If you could have the first 200m of every race on a piece of paper and you weren’t challenging Warren Buffett, there would be something wrong. It’s a huge key to racing.

I look at the race and get a feel for where horses are at in their preparation and then do a map rather than trying to guess off previous speed they have shown.

So for a horse that has drawn wide but has got a good fitness base it has a bigger chance of going forward than a horse that is fresh or has had a gap between runs.

Every race has a winner and every track has a different position where you want your horses to be.

Every race is different and if you don’t treat it that way you are passing on a lot of opportunities if you are discounting horses out the back.

You might want a better price about those horses and be aggressive on your pricing against them because of where they are going to be in the run, and I’ve got no problem with that.

There are too many dominant horses that are going to get conditions to suit back in the field that win to put a line through them all.

I’m pretty flexible. I do prefer to find horses on speed, it’s much less painful, but they are not always there.

It’s the deadest charge of the light brigade in some of the country races. It’s crazy how hard they go and if you are backing leaders all the time your horses get barbequed so often that it’ll drive you mad.

They tend to go a lot slower in town. I don’t know what it is. Country racing is run truly and can be harder to predict but in the city, once they have found their spot they tend to hold them.

Betting Advice (2 of 8) - Barrier Trials

This article originally appeared in a series called "Punting Pointers" at this link. We want to share it with our customers as it is very important advice to help you bet better.

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This is part two of an eight-part series aimed at educating punters to help take their wagering to the next level. Brad Gray sought the insights of five of the most respected industry figures when it comes to punting, form analysis and bookmaking.

Most trainers in Sydney will trial their horse once, and often twice, before they resume their preparation but how much should punters factor them into doing the form? Is there still an edge to be had?

Every punter will have their own opinion on this but what all of our five experts agreed on, in Part Two of the series, is that it is a specialist area. Start training that eye!

 

Dominic Beirne (@domran)

Trials are crucial but they don’t tell you everything about a horse unless you’ve got very granular data from a times perspective.

The two most important factors in a barrier trial, which we’ve been observing and forming opinions about for 40 years, are the jockey pressure and the closing sectional.

The combination of the two is important because any horse can be under a throttle hold and run no time but you want to find a horse that is not under a lot of pressure and runs a fast closing sectional, where your eye is telling you that it has many lengths up its sleeve.

People have definitely got an eye for barrier trials but once again it comes with practice and it comes with making honest post-race appraisals of how good your eye was. Eventually your practice will become perfected.


Video: The untrained eye may have skimmed over Dynamited in his only trial.

 

Rob Waterhouse (@RobWaterhouse)

Horses that trial well are very easy to lay as a bookmarker because people put a lot of stock in them. Barrier trials do play a part but I haven’t had much success with them over the years.

It’s more of a specialist job for all sorts of reasons. Gai’s horses are there to see in barrier trials while other trainer’s horses are hidden away. Until a horse is extended how do you know how good it is?

With barrier trials you can’t say a horse deserves 'this' rating - all you can say is that it deserves a rating no more than this or a rating no less than this.

Missinglettr

 

Nathan Snow (@snowbet)

They’ve been an enormous tool for me over the years. It used to be a huge edge but that has diminished. I used to pay for a VHS tape of barrier trials to be posted to me once a week and I’d say there would have been 10-15 people in the country that were viewing those trials.

Now it’s just the click of a mouse and it’s all there. Convenience-wise it is wonderful. I still find there is an edge there just because it’s the one aspect of doing the form that is always going to be more art than science.

Horses don’t have to try and it’s always going to be very hard to quantify in a figure what they are doing. Times are less important in trials too – they are a factor, but less important. It comes down to knowing what you are looking for.

For anyone starting out I would suggest watching each trial closely before jotting down whatever comes to mind. Keep referring to these notes when the horses go to the races.

Go back and see what works and what doesn’t. What works for certain trainers is a big thing because trainers like their horses to trial in a certain way and when they trial differently it stands out.

The sort of things you are looking for are gate speed, which is very important, tractability, the action, which again comes from experience as you’ll come to find what a good actioned horse is, and how easily they are doing it as opposed to other horses.

The grip of the jockey is also significant as they have all got different grips and how they are gripping the reins can tell you a lot about how the horse is travelling and what they’ve got left.

The other thing is if they do give you a chance to see any sort of acceleration, which is always a big plus.


Video: Sedanzer was a first up winner after displaying brilliant acceleration in her Randwick trial.

 

Daniel O’Sullivan (@TRBHorseRacing)

It’s one of those things that I’m not big on. Not because I don’t believe in it, it’s just a case of you have to prioritise where you get the biggest value for your time investment in doing form.

There are a lot of people that specialise in trials and I’m sure do very well out of it but that’s not an area I specialise in.

I’ll watch a couple of trials and I get all of the times and sectionals so if I’m interested in a first up horse I will check them in isolated cases.

As a rule I’m not one who follows trial sessions each week and blackbooks horses that I want to be on first up. I’m more about looking at the race as it comes up and if there is a reason to look at a trial I will.

I don’t do a lot of betting in two-year-old races where the exposed form is very limited.

That said, let’s say Performer and Bondi (out of the Breeders’ Plate) both turn up next week and every other horse was a first starter I’d still potentially bet in that race because I have formed an opinion of how good Performer might be and I don’t care how well something else has trialled.


Video: The trial of Performer - arguably the benchmark two year old so far.

 

John Walter (@J_Walter23)

It’s hard to ignore them now as nearly every city trainer gives their horses two trials before it goes to the races. Maybe that was like their first and second up run before so it is like trying to ignore them previously.

The whole game has changed where barrier trials are hugely important. You’ll get 150 horses trialling in town on a Monday now.

I don’t look at the times as much but instead look at the horses themselves. The start is really important – what they are doing at the start tends to tell me more than what they are doing at the finish.

A lot of people get carried away by big margin trial winners. There are big negatives that occur in trials and big positives and there are less people looking at trials from that perspective than races so there is more advantage in trials.

If they have led, been tested and accelerated away. There are big margin winners like that and then there are those that have led by six lengths, nothing has gone near it and they’ve still won by six. They seem to be treated very similarly by the market.

You just treat them like another race so if you can quantify what they’ve done and say it’s all positive, good, but if there are a few chinks there that could be undone by race conditions that’s also a huge edge.

Betting Advice (1 of 8) - Trusting Your Eye

This article originally appeared in a series called "Punting Pointers" at this link. We want to share it with our customers as it is very important advice to help you bet better.

Betting Advice Series.png

This is part one of an eight-part series aimed at educating punters to help take their wagering to the next level. Brad Gray sought the insights of five of the most respected industry figures when it comes to punting, form analysis and bookmaking.

How much should a punter trust their eye when assessing form? For Part One, our experts were asked what the right balance of art versus science is.

There is more information available to punters than ever before but as you’ll find from the below, the general consensus is that there is still a big edge to be had in backing your own judgement.

 

Dominic Beirne (@domran)

Numbers will tell you 95 percent of the facts. We’ve relied on data since we’ve been doing form with just pencils and paper and now we’re able to enter and retain information on a computer.

However, some of the best judges I know in horse racing know nothing about numbers. They’ve got a great eye, and a great nous, which comes with experience.

One example of using your eye over numbers, or to assist with the numbers, is horses that are up in distance.

While there are measures that are indicative of the increase in speed a horse may be able to show as the distance gets longer, watching a horses action late is something you can’t find raw data about so your eye is extremely important as a value-add to what the numbers say.

The eye is definitely trained – there’s the 10,000-hour theory.

Whether it takes that long I doubt it but the fact remains that practice will perfect what you are looking for.

When you think you have found something with your eye you have to be honest about the result and look back and say well I thought my eye told me that horse would not run the extra distance and it didn’t. Why was that?

What was it about that last run that misled me? And similarly, what was it that led me to conclude that it would run the distance and it did?

There is no use patting yourself on the back. You have to go back over the reason to why you came to that accurate conclusion and cement that into your mind to see if it is a repeatable pattern.

 

Rob Waterhouse (@RobWaterhouse)

I am a numerate person but I’ve always said that when you watch a race and you see a good horse, it stands out. Even if the numbers aren’t there to back it up. Especially with lightly-raced horses.

Gut feel does come into it to some extent. Similarly, if you watch a race and the numbers appear to be good, you can often think the race isn’t much good. I think the eye does play a part but having said that I’m a great believer in numbers.

You just develop the eye without really thinking about it, is the long and short of it. It takes experience and from a young age as well.

For example, I notice in particular horses that drop at the wither and extend. Horses that have a nice low head carriage. It’s something that comes from experience.


Video: Black Caviar 'dropping at the wither' (the ridge between the shoulder blades).

 

Nathan Snow (@snowbet)

I am definitely more art than science. You can be 100 percent science and zero percent art and win at the game as well as the other way round and be anywhere in between and still find a way to win.

That’s part of the beauty of betting on racing. This data revolution that we are undergoing allows more opportunities and more ways to explore.

The whole thing with trust, and it’s like any sort of relationship, is that it comes from experience.

The more familiar you are with something the more you begin to trust it. The human mind is an amazing thing. The subconscious, the way it works, you immerse yourself in a subject and some things automatically sink in and get recalled.

The file inside your mind is better than any computer I believe but that’s where the trust comes from.

Early on you don’t want to trust anything. You want to verify everything but when you get experience and become more immersed in it, you can trust yourself more.

The way I do the form is knowing the horse as an individual so it’s knowing what suits them, what they are capable of and what scenario will suit them next time – so it’s a lot of gut and intuition.

Pick a region and start small and try to concentrate on each horse, the trainers, the jockeys and their patterns. That’s the best way to approach doing the form I find.

 

Missinglettr

Daniel O’Sullivan (@TRBHorseRacing)

My overriding philosophy would be a balance. I’m quite big on the science side of things – data, ratings, times and sectional measures – and it is the basis of everything I do but then I do believe that there is an art form in applying that to betting.

The science is in the assessing of previous performances and the art form is interpreting that for today’s race and to make betting decisions.

When it comes to betting decisions over the years I’ve come to believe that your intuition is very important.

You need to have clarity on your strategy and what it is you are trying to do, and the type of scenarios you are looking for, but I think that your instincts in being able to recognise when a situation feels right for betting, and maybe when it doesn’t, is very important.

Firstly from a profit perspective but also from a psychological perspective because one of the biggest objectives in being a punter is not only making profitable betting decisions but also making decisions that help you keep a balanced state of mind, so not making decisions that will see you experience more regret than the alternative.

A great example of that is a horse at $1.80 that you really like but you’re unsure about the price and you are toing and froing.

Minimising your regret in those situations is important. It’s no good betting because you are simply worried about missing a winner – you’ll kick yourself after the event.

It’s not only about using your intuition to make profitable decisions but using it to make decisions that feel right so you can live with the outcome whatever the result is. Especially if it goes against you.


Video: Winx's debut win - what does your eye tell you?

 

John Walter (@J_Walter23)

I would have started out nearly 100 percent trusting my eye and then when I was working for Zeljko (Ranogajec) it turned around to proving your eye is correct with the data. Wanting to prove what you are seeing has actually happened.

I still use my eye a lot more than I use data but I’ve definitely come around to the science part of it in recent years. It’s a balance but I believe there is more advantage in your eye because so many people get the same sort of data.

I look for a million different things including trying to identify bias and then go back and make sure. Like anything, it has negatives and positives.

If something is good to your eye and you go back and it’s horrendous figure-wise you might interrogate it more to see whether there is an edge to be found.

If you’re more focused on a select group of horses – from New South Wales for example or those that race over a particular distance range – it is much easier to get to know the horses, trainers, jockeys and what they can do with horses.

Like barrier trials, there are a lot of different things you can pick up on the vision that a spreadsheet won’t tell you.