Backing Horses Purely on Trainer

We have looked at Trainers to see how they perform. Below is a table of trainer stats for the past (almost) 4 years [2012-2015]

In order to make the list, a trainer had to have had at least 500 recorded runners over the period and the cut off was Tony McEvoy. Every other trainer performed worse than Tony's  figures. The trainer at the bottom of the list of at least 500 runners is also included for comparison.

The first thing that stands out is that in theory, it is possible to make a profit based solely on following particular Trainers.

You need to be a little careful though because some of the profits might have come from a single winner and also even our data is not 100% accurate because while it comes from official sources the Australian data is incomplete – sometimes a Trainer is not listed for a runner for example. 

What the table shows though is some trainers have significantly better results than others.

And there is one name in that list being Gaye Waterhouse that is very interesting. Despite training a very large number of runners and despite the theory that her horses are overbet, ie undervalue, they perform with a significant edge over a random selection. 

In terms of improving your selections, we can only suggest that the ranking arises from a few of factors. 

  • Better Trainers often have better horses. So success breeds success

  • There are Trainer myths out there which need to be challenged such as Gaye Waterhouse horses are significantly overbet. The figures suggest this is not the case or if it is the case then her horses are even better than assumed.

  • Don’t back bad trainers for the win. And really bad trainers are really bad betting propositions. 

  • Flavor of the year trainers – Waller for example – perform ok – better than bad trainers – but not well enough to be profitable. So be selective. Try and figure out which of his runners are best suited because often he will have more than one horse in a race but only one which is really suited. That is the horse you want to be on.

[Note this table is a few years old, but the principles above still hold true]