Besides reliable tips and ratings, “Systems” are the second most important item on a Punter’s Wish List.
So the general principles to use are:-
Must have a reasonable time period of information. Months of data is a minimum. Preferably somewhere between 3 and 5 years.
Don’t go back much more than the 5 years. Racing is constantly evolving and to delve too far back you are no longer necessarily comparing race types/classes/distances/tracks/weights with racing being run under the current rules.
Don’t include rules which don’t have a very logical basis. If it sounds improbable, for example – horses only dropping in distance by 800m unless there is a specific reason and justification – it may be a poor ‘rule’.
Do specialize. So concentrate on a type of race or state or distance range or class of race. Maidens surprisingly, can be very profitable!
Do use logical rules.
Do use good quality information and data for your analysis.
Be wary of special tracks or conditions. The Flemington Straight and Night Races at Moonee Valley are problematic for me, personally.
For our RewardBet customers, here is an example of a very simple but profitable system.
Focus on Country or Provincial Races – we are trying to find horses that are overpriced and the markets in the city are very, very efficient. The Country and Provincial races are also, in general, not as pressured in the running.
Distance range of 1300m to 1500m. Personally I believe that 1400m races are the most truly run races in Australia. And that little bit of extra distance allows some recovery from a bad jump or bad luck in running.
Horses with 3 to 6 starts this campaign. Not many horses come into enough fitness with only 1 or 2 races although some stables are better at this than others.
Horses that last ran 14 days maximum. Again these are likely to be fit having had a few races this campaign and coming back to the races fairly quickly. Just going back to Metro Races, they are run harder and while horses do backup and win, and I win a lot of money on them, the recent runs are very important in terms of fitness.
Horses that are top rated from a good rating (service). Note this rating will not make a level stakes profit on its own.
You can’t get much simpler than that.
Here are the results.
12.7% POT (Profit on Turnover) (and up to 18% with better prices)