horse racing

Profitability Of Position in Running (Horse Racing)

This article is related to expected position in running (galloping racing) and once again highlights the overall poor performance of horses which are back markers.

The raw information is from a very good set of Rankings for the top ranked horse in each race. The overall figures are:-


So approximately break even or potentially profitable using Best of SP/Top Tote. As an aside an ideal set of selections to run with RewardBet because simply adding in some Random Selections (with your main selection a banker for 1st) will be quite a bit of fun and based on our extensive analysis will be a few percent profitable.


So in this context the leaders are being over bet and the back markers are not being sufficiently penalized. A Loss of 28% POT on what are otherwise, as a group, break even and solid selections is very hard to overcome.

Food for thought when deciding which runners to back with your hard earned money.

A good form guide or looking at historical videos should give you an idea of where your horse will be placed in a race. More professional information or "race maps" can add significantly to your confidence here.

Why Sex Matters in Horse Racing

Another of the many factors to be considered in making selections should be the sex of the horse.

Now obviously it is not a consideration with sex restricted races BUT should be one of the considerations for Handicap and Set Weight races being contested by both sexes. 

Here are the figures since Jan 1st 2012 11th Oct 2015.

phoenix_sex_performance table-rb.png


So the unmistakable conclusion to be drawn is that in mixed class racing consideration needs to be given to the conditions of the race and you want to only be backing female horses against male horses when they are very strong selections.

I think the most interesting number is the last one because I suspect that there is an assumption that the SWP (Set Weights with Penalties) scales even out the difference. What the data clearly shows is that backing Mares against Male horses in SW and SWP races should be done with caution.

The way that I use the information for the most part is slightly differently than presented in the table. My experience is that the most consistent horses are 4 year old Geldings following by 5 to 7 year old Geldings.  Some of the research that I use specifically looks through those runners looking for profitable betting scenarios.

So hopefully you can use this information to improve your betting.