Profitability Of Position in Running (Horse Racing)

This article is related to expected position in running (galloping racing) and once again highlights the overall poor performance of horses which are back markers.

The raw information is from a very good set of Rankings for the top ranked horse in each race. The overall figures are:-

SELECTIONS: 1536,  RETURN $1513

So approximately break even or potentially profitable using Best of SP/Top Tote. As an aside an ideal set of selections to run with RewardBet because simply adding in some Random Selections (with your main selection a banker for 1st) will be quite a bit of fun and based on our extensive analysis will be a few percent profitable.

So in this context the leaders are being over bet and the back markers are not being sufficiently penalized. A Loss of 28% POT on what are otherwise, as a group, break even and solid selections is very hard to overcome.

Food for thought when deciding which runners to back with your hard earned money.

A good form guide or looking at historical videos should give you an idea of where your horse will be placed in a race. More professional information or "race maps" can add significantly to your confidence here.

The Myth of the 100 Unit Bank

This is one often quoted and entirely wrong axiom relating to punting and the reason is related to draw downs and runs of outs.

Let’s take an average recreational punter who may have 10 bets per week or say 500 bets per year.

Now if they are fairly good they may hit a 22.5% Strike Rate (favourites are around 30%). So if we look at the following table, that punter can expect a losing run in any single year of 24 and in any 10 year period (5000 bets) a losing run of 33. So that means not even that odds-on favorite you just backed, just lost - 33 losers in a row.

As an aside a few years ago exactly that situation happened with favorites in Queensland - 32 favorites in a row went down. Would you believe that? I also remember a statistic about the great jockey Darren Beadman having at least a losing run of 55 races at Rosehill. Imagine if you were following him at that time!

And that is only part of the story. Because the losing run of 24 could be followed up by another losing run of 23 for a drawdown (of your bank) of 47 units. In fact, even using professional tipsters’ selections, my rule of thumb is that the minimum drawdown you need to plan for is around 65 - with the maximum up to 160.

Therefore if you only have a bank of 100 units then you will be rather stressed after losing 50 units – half your bank – in a run that looks like it will never end. By the time it gets to 64 your wife is starting to ask how it is going because you look extremely stressed. 

And after 130 units - I had one occasion when I managed that in a single day, is so severe that you are probably in hospital.

So I recommend a betting bank of 250 units. Not “can be tipped in if necessary” but actual dollars in your account.

One of the great things about RewardBet is that you are encouraged using the Market Gauge to take potentially more selections in a race – so although you may still be missing winners to provide profits, you can certainly be hitting collects so that you can see the light at the end of the tunnel when they do arrive.

Read the chart, look at where you sit and understand this is not fiction. This is fact and wherever you sit on the chart is very accurate prediction of runs of outs.

 

The 100 Unit Bank? It is a myth. You need about 2 ½ times that in your account - funds committed - to be fairly sure that over a long enough periods you survive the draw downs.

But all punting requires patience, a solid betting bank and a solid understanding of the chart above. As soon as you loss chase, change the plan, deviate from the selections that YOU like then you are more likely to face losses and lose confidence in your betting.

Remember that there are many myths and stories told in the punting world – things passed down without much fact behind them.

When it comes to betting there’s one fact that does stand out from the rest – the mathematics of RewardBet and the mathematics of the chart above to guide your actions for the better.

Why Sex Matters in Horse Racing

Another of the many factors to be considered in making selections should be the sex of the horse.

Now obviously it is not a consideration with sex restricted races BUT should be one of the considerations for Handicap and Set Weight races being contested by both sexes. 

Here are the figures since Jan 1st 2012 11th Oct 2015.

 

So the unmistakable conclusion to be drawn is that in mixed class racing consideration needs to be given to the conditions of the race and you want to only be backing female horses against male horses when they are very strong selections.

I think the most interesting number is the last one because I suspect that there is an assumption that the SWP (Set Weights with Penalties) scales even out the difference. What the data clearly shows is that backing Mares against Male horses in SW and SWP races should be done with caution.

The way that I use the information for the most part is slightly differently than presented in the table. My experience is that the most consistent horses are 4 year old Geldings following by 5 to 7 year old Geldings.  Some of the research that I use specifically looks through those runners looking for profitable betting scenarios.

So hopefully you can use this information to improve your betting.