Rocktober Selections
Race Key: ↗️Market Drift past our threshold of $8 (ie: should be NO bet)
👿=Bad Beat 🏆 = Units profit
Results based on betting to PROFIT 5 units per selection (with max outlay of 1.5 units).
Betting rule: We don’t bet these if the price is OVER $8 (SP). Of course, it is hard to predict price movements, but if you DO bet late and the price has drifted OUT past this threshold, we suggest NOT BETTING. Official results WILL take this rule into account.
NB: You can set a price-limit in Betfair SP (remember to take into account your commission when working it out, it’ll be something above $8 due to this fact).
About These Selections
A totally NEW service and an industry first, we have been providing to our SSSS subscribers since October 3 2018, are our Rocktober selections.
These selections are derived from some inside intelligence we’ve gathered from speaking to fellow professional punters, some trainers and finally by painstakingly delving into our extensive database to see if our theory holds up.
It certainly does! Look at the profits that our theory has produced since we started the analysis.
These profits put most professional punters to shame! We are not sure how long this profitable theory will hold up for (as you need to keep evolving to be successful and things change in racing) but we are certainly making hay whilst the sun shines!
You can have complimentary access to these selections if you are an SSSS tips member.
NB: Click on the image to access the video replay of the race
November Monthly Summary
The Rocktobers delivered a PROFIT during the month - which was pleasing. We continue to monitor and evaluate these selections which we expect to improve over-time as we eliminate poor factors (such as certain jockeys).
Using bookie bonus bets and offers you should have done much better.
Nov Outlay: 139.54 units. Return: 143.39 units. Profit: 3.85 units (2.7%)
Fri 30 November
No selections today
(Overall Running Totals: Outlay: 310.16 Units Return: 292.82 Units Loss: 17.34 UNITS 6% LOT)
Thu 29 November
No selections today
(Running Totals: Outlay: 310.16 Units Return: 292.82 Units Loss: 17.34 UNITS 6% LOT)
Wed 28 November
Outlay 1.00 Units. Return 0.00 Units. Loss of 1.00 Units (100% LOT)
(Running Totals: Outlay: 310.16 Units Return: 292.82 Units Loss: 17.34 UNITS 6% LOT)
Sandown Race 5 No.11 River Jewel @ $6 (1 UNIT WIN)
Result: 2nd at SP $8.00. After sitting third behind the leaders, joined in at the 400m mark, received a bump or two up the straight from the eventual third place horse, tightened for room as well and only went down by a neck. A little cleaner run and it could have been a different story. Outcome -1.00 Units.
↗️Sandown Race 7 No.10 Our Chiquilla @ $6 (1 UNIT WIN)
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $8.50
Sandown Race 8 No.13 Benny Goes Berzerk @ $15 - watch, price unlikely
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $10.00
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Tue 27 November
Outlay 0.71 Units. Return 5.71 Units. Profit of 5.00 Units (700% POT)
(Running Totals: Outlay: 309.16 Units Return: 292.82 Units Loss: 16.34 UNITS 5% LOT)
Bendigo Race 3 No.10 Rondelle @ $19 - price unlikely
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $41.00
🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆Bendigo Race 9 No.9 Cash Affair @ $14 - price unlikely, however with John Allen riding …. if he can get across from the wide barrier into a good position - could be a value E/W bet. Not official, but we will be looking at that option.
Result: 1st at SP $10.00, Best Tote $10.60, Betfair $12.50. Each way players Super Tab $2.90 and Betfair $3.28. Shortened to $7.50 before easing out very late. Came from next to last, took rails run, shortest way home, while most other runners took the middle of the track and hit the lead 100m out and held on for victory. This became an official play as via our official communications. Outcome +5.71 Units.
Mon 26 November
No Selections Today
(Running Totals: Outlay: 308.45 Units Return: 287.11 Units Loss: 21.34 UNITS 7% LOT)
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Sun 25 November
Outlay 2.50 Units. Return 5.75 Units. Profit of 3.25 Units (130% POT)
(Running Totals: Outlay: 308.45 Units Return: 287.11 Units Loss: 21.34 UNITS 7% LOT)
Ararat Race 1 No.1 Anythings Possible @ $34 - price unlikely
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $21.00
🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆📫⭐ARARAT Race 2 No. 1 Chouxter @ $2.30 (2.5 UNITS WIN)
Result: 1st at SP $1.80, Best Tote $1.80, Betfair $1.88. After sitting in second, joined the leader at the top of the straight and responded to the whip at about the 200m mark to score a length win. Outcome +5.75 Units
Ararat Race 7 No.13 Sea Of Stars @ $9 - watch price (lower with some bookies)
Result: Non Qualifier – 3rd at SP $10.00
Sat 24 November
Outlay 4.16 Units. Return 0.00 Units. Loss of 4.16 Units (100% LOT)
(Running Totals: Outlay: 305.95 Units Return: 281.36 Units Loss: 24.59 UNITS 8% LOT)
Ballarat Race 3 No.6 The Gatting Ball @ $4.20 (1.57 UNITS WIN)
Result: 2nd at SP $5.50. Cruised around the turn and looked set for victory. Hit the front briefly though at the 150m mark, Khartoum, who was up towards the front found another gear and went on to win. Outcome -1.57 Units.
Ballarat Race 5 No.6 No Emotion @ $14 - price unlikely
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $15.00
Ballarat Race 7 No.11 Broadway And First @ $26 - price unlikely
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $41.00
Ballarat Race 8 No.8 Andrea Mantegna @ $26 - price unlikely
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $15.00
Ballarat Race 8 No.13 Master Zephyr @ $28 - price unlikely
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $17.00.
Ballarat Race 8 No.20 Lucky For All @ $5.50 - (1.12 UNITS WIN)
Result: Unplaced at SP $4.40. Settled towards the front though from the turn struggled and finished at the tail. Reported that blinkers applied first time may have been too keen and unsettled. Outcome -1.12 Units.
Ballarat Race 10 No.5 Snitzkraft @ $6.50 (0.91 UNITS WIN)
Result: Non Qualifier - 4th at SP $9.00.
Ballarat Race 10 No.10 Man From Uncle @ $8.00 (0.72 UNITS WIN) - has firmed this AM
Result: Non Qualifier - 3rd at SP $8.50.
Ascot Race 7 No.10 Junipal @ $8 (0.72 UNITS WIN)
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $9.00
Ascot Race 8 No.7 Peaceful State @ $6.50 (0.91 UNITS WIN)
Result: Unplaced at SP $6.50. From slightly worse than midfield, was had ridden prior to the turn, making no ground. From about 200m was eased out and finished at the tail. Outcome -0.91 Units.
Ascot Race 8 No.12 Iconoclasm @ $10 (0.56 UNITS) - (NB: Above official cut-off price but Craig Williams goes across to Ascot to ride, which is a good indicator of intent to us)
Result: Unplaced at SP $7.00. Market support till jump. From midfield position, was widest on turn but made no impression on winners. Never looked likely. Outcome -0.56 Units.
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Fri 23 November
Outlay 4.91 Units. Return 6.00 Units. Profit of 1.09 Units (22% POT)
(Running Totals: Outlay: 301.79 Units Return: 281.36 Units Loss: 20.43 UNITS 7% LOT)
🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆Terang Race 2 No.5 Crimson Tears @ $6 (1 UNIT WIN). Although has DY steering, I think that after a recent jump-out and over 1200m and considering the price, it is an inclusion.
Result: 1st at SP $5.00, Best Tote $6.50, Betfair $9.82. Came from the back and found clean air in the straight and joined the leaders at about the 200m mark and proved too strong and won by a length and a half. Outcome +6.00 Units.
Terang Race 3 No.5 Malevolent @ $4.20 (1.57 UNITS WIN). Again with DY, if he can get across from the barrier and over 1000m and some good support this AM.
Result: 4th at SP $4.80. Got to the outside in the straight and despite hitting the line well, was too far back to be a winning hope. Outcome -1.57 Units.
Terang Race 5 No.10 Skalacci @ $6.50 (0.91 UNITS WIN).
Result: Unplaced at SP $7.50. Settled towards the tail of the field and while had a clear run home couldn’t make any headway on the winners. Never a winning hope in the run. Outcome -0.91 Units.
Moonee Valley Race 7 No.8 So You Leica @ $4.50 (1.43 UNITS WIN)
Result: Unplaced at SP $4.40. Settled three wide mid field. Under hard ridding prior to turn but couldn’t make ground and finished out the back. Outcome -1.43 Units.
Moonee Valley Race 7 No.14 Midas Prince @ $10 - watch price, with JA steering, likely to be supported.
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $13.00
Thu 22 November
No Qualifiers Today
(Running Totals: Outlay: 296.88 Units Return: 275.36 Units Loss: 21.52 UNITS 7% LOT)
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Wed 21 November
Outlay 2.50 Units. Return 6.00 Units. Profit of 3.50 Units (140% POT)
(Running Totals: Outlay: 296.88 Units Return: 275.36 Units Loss: 21.52 UNITS 7% LOT)
Sandown Race 1 No.5 Declares War @ $2.40 (2.5 UNITS WIN)
🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆Result: 1st at SP $3.00, Best Tote $2.90, Betfair $3.57. Came from the back, joined in nicely at the turn and kept up its work in the straight to edge out an honest win. Outcome +6.00 Units
Sandown Race 7 No.5 Waking Moment @ $31 - price unlikely
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $26.00
Sandown Race 8 No.16 Discreet Charm @ $11 - watch price
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $21.00
Tue 20 November
Outlay 2.50 Units. Return 0.00 Units. Loss of 2.50 Units (100% LOT)
(Running Totals: Outlay: 294.38 Units Return: 269.36 Units Loss: 25.02 UNITS 9% LOT)
Tatura Race 4 No.10 Lope De Field $ 1.95 (use odds boost?). (2.5 UNITS WIN)
Result: Unplaced at SP $2.05. Was three to four wide majority of the trip in about fifth position. Tried to join in from the turn but tired late to finish out of the places. Outcome -2.50 Units.
Mon 19 November
No Selections Today
(Running Totals: Outlay: 291.88 Units Return: 269.36 Units Loss: 22.52 UNITS 8% LOT)
Sun 18 November
Outlay 15.97 Units. Return 6.25 Units. Loss of 9.72 Units (61% LOT)
(Running Totals: Outlay: 291.88 Units Return: 269.36 Units Loss: 22.52 UNITS 8% LOT)
⭐🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆Donald Race 1 No.2 Man Alive @ $2.50 (2.5 UNITS WIN)
Result: 1st at SP $2.20, Best Tote $2.40, Betfair $2.52. After sitting behind the speed, at the turn changed course to go one off the rails where breaks opened and went on to take the race comfortably. Outcome +6.25 Units.
Donald Race 1 No.6 Maunahost @ $17 - price unlikely
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $21.00
Donald Race 2 No.1 Amon @ $26 - price unlikely
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $91.00
⭐Donald Race 2 No.8 Wild Moon @ $3.30 (2.18 UNITS WIN)
Result: 4th at SP $2.15. Speed went on from just before the turn and Wild Moon was under hard riding without making up ground from just behind the speed. Outcome -2.18 Units.
Geelong Race 2 No.1 Go Ferrando @ $9.50 - watch price
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $9.00
⭐Geelong Race 2 No.7 High Done @ $2.20 (2.5 UNITS WIN)
Result: 2nd at SP $2.05. After joining the leaders, including the winner Grey Khan, at the top of the straight, Grey Khan had another kick that High Done couldn’t answer. Also the mini bumping jewel in the straight didn’t help. Though no excuses, Grey Khan was too good. Outcome -2.50 Units.
⭐Geelong Race 2 No.8 Predicated @ $6.00 (1 UNIT WIN)
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $14.00
Geelong Race 2 No.9 Veloucher @ $10 - watch price
Result: Unplaced at SP $5.00. Always out the back and never looked like a winning chance despite encountering some traffic on the turn and having to change course back to the rails. Outcome -1.25 Units.
NB: This race could make a very good RewardBet with the qualifers as bankers for 1st with the others 2/3 spots.
Donald Race 3 No.7 Florida Mist @ $3.40 (2.09 UNITS WIN)
Result: Unplaced at SP $4.60. Was off the bit before the turn as leader tried to kick for home. Couldn’t make up necessary ground and finished towards the back. Outcome -2.09 Units.
Geelong Race 3 No.4 Malawi Gold @ $4.20 (1.57 UNITS WIN)
Result: 2nd at SP $3.70. Was a battle between the first two for the whole race, We had the rails during the run, Majestic Halo sat outside. Strong battle in the straight but Majestic Halo just a little to good to win by a head. Close. Outcome -1.57 Units.
⭐Geelong Race 4 No.7 Spicer @ $8 (0.72 UNITS WIN) - watch price
Result: Non Qualifier - 4th at SP $14.00
Geelong Race 4 No.8 Zuers @ $12 - watch price
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $15.00
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Sat 17 November
Outlay 9.71 Units. Return 12.07 Units. Profit of 2.36 Units (24% POT)
(Running Totals: Outlay: 275.91 Units Return: 263.11 Units Loss: 12.79 UNITS 5% LOT)
Sandown Race 2 No.5 Ormito @ $10 - watch price
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $10.00
Sandown Race 2 No.6 Azuro @ $3.30 (2.18 UNITS WIN)
Result: 2nd at SP $3.40. Looked to have the race sewn up as it hit the front at the 300m mark, but the winner, Yogi, sprouted wings late to nab it on the line. Outcome -2.18 Units.
Sandown Race 2 No.8 Kellstorm @ $10 - watch price
Result: Non Qualifier - 4th at SP $9.00
Dunkeld Race 2 No.6 Punchbowl @ $7.50 (0.77 UNITS WIN)
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $14.00
Sandown Race 4 No.3 Kiwia @ $9 - watch price
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $10.00
Sandown Race 5 No.1 First Among Equals @ $12 - watch price
Result: Non Qualifier - 2nd at SP $19.00
Sandown Race 5 No.9 Quilista @ $6.50 (0.91 UNIT WIN)
Result: Unplaced at SP $5.50. Led and straightened one length in front, headed at the 300m mark and dropped back through to finish midfield. Outcome -0.91 Units.
↗️Dunkeld Race 4 No.5 Sarkozy @ $6.50 (0.91 UNIT WIN)
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $10.00
Sandown Race 6 No.4 Holy Snow @ $8 (0.72 UNIT WIN)
Result: 2nd at SP $7.50. From the tail, was widest on the turn and worked home well to finish 2nd though winner, Fifty Stars, way too good. Outcome -0.72 Units.
🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆Sandown Race 6 No.8 Fifty Stars @ $1.95 (2.5 UNITS WIN)
Result: 1st at SP $1.70, Best Tote $1.70, Betfair $1.75. Found a split at about the 200m mark and exploded away for a comfortable win on the line. Did the job it was expected to do. Outcome +4.88 Units.
Side Note: Found the Quinella and Exacta which on Super Tab paid $4.60 and $6.40.
🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆Sandown Race 7 No.3 Ringerdingding @ $3.30 (2.18 UNITS WIN)
Result: 1st at SP $2.90, Best Tote $2.90, Betfair $2.98. From the tail, was one of widest on the turn and exploded at the 300m mark and wore down the leaders to win by a length on the line. Impressive. Outcome +7.19 Units.
Sandown Race 8 No.6 Lord Fandango @ $7.50 (0.77 UNIT WIN)
Result: 4th at SP $8.00. Straightened up in the clear from 5th, six lengths behind the leaders and kept going nicely in a race dominated by the front runners. Outcome -0.77 Units
Sandown Race 10 No.5 Split Lip @ $20 - price unlikely
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $19.00
Sandown Race 10 No.7 Spanner Head @ $14 - price unlikely
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $15.00
Donald Race 5 No.7 Nations @ $4.60 (1.39 UNITS WIN)
Result: Unplaced at SP $6.00. Joined in a row of four horses from the turn but quickly dropped off to finish towards the tail. Outcome -1.39 Units.
Donald Race 7 No.4 Royal Ace @ $2.60 (2.5 UNITS WIN)
Result: 4th at SP $2.35. After seeing clear room at the turn when Romancer made a mini break, Royal Ace had no answers. Outcome -2.50 Units.
⭐Donald Race 7 No.5 Romancer @ $6.50 (0.91 UNIT WIN)
Result: Non Qualifier - 1st at SP $8.50, Best Tote $9.90, Betfair $13.00.
⭐Donald Race 7 No.7 Fastnet Latina @ $3.80 (1.79 UNIT WIN)
Result: 2nd at SP $3.00. After trailing the winner for majority of race, Romancer get a mini break at the 300m mark which eventually proved too hard for Fastnet Latina to make up. Though due to advice below this was a no bet. If you didn’t take the advice, Outcome -1.79 Units.
Donald Race 7 No.10 Azurite @ $23 - price unlikely
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $101.00
Donald Race 7 No.12 Pow Wow @ $26 - price unlikely
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $61.00
Side Note: Quinella on Super Tab paid $11.60, Exacta $34.50.
NB: The three qualifiers are a losing situation if we bet them all (even if we win the race). On our ratings, Royal Ace is an overlay so I suggest we back that selection ONLY for the win at these current prices (and maybe you have the others in exotics in an RewardBet?). However if the prices change before the race, the profitability of backing the qualifiers could also change, especially if they all drift - so monitor that.
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Fri 16 November
Outlay 8.44 Units. Return 20.14 Units. Profit of 11.70 Units (139% POT)
(Running Totals: Outlay: 266.19 Units Return: 251.04 Units Loss: 15.15 UNITS 6% LOT)
🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 Moonee Valley Race 1 No.8 Beetobee @ $4.40 (1.48 UNITS WIN)
Result: 1st at SP $5.50, Best Tote $4.90, Betfair $6.27. Settled towards the tail of the field. Race was on just prior to the turn and joined in four wide for uninterrupted run and kept finding to score on the line. Outcome +5.03 Units.
Moonee Valley Race 4 No.8 Cullingworth @ $12 - watch price
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $18.00
🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆Moonee Valley Race 6 No.11 Truly High @ $4.80 (1.32 UNITS WIN) ***
Result: 1st at SP $3.80, Best Tote $3.80, Betfair $4.20. Had run of the race, settling just behind the speed, one out. From the turn looked very good and was in danger of being boxed in, but pushed clear at about the 250m mark to find clear air and saluted for victory. Nice win for the special of the day. Outcome + 5.02 Units.
Moonee Valley Race 6 No.12 Penthouse Playboy @ $8.50 - watch price
Result: 2nd at SP $5.50. Had the winners back from around the 600m mark, Truly High, and despite behind always behind did hit the line well to claim 2nd in a photo. Outcome -
Moonee Valley Race 6 No.13 San Remo @ $12 - watch price
Result: Non Qualifier - 3rd at SP $17.00
Side Note - Had the Quinella, Exact and Triffecta here. On Super Tab, this paid $9.80, $18.50 and $211.30. Hopefully a number of people were on.
Moonee Valley Race 7 No.3 Tezlah @ $9 - watch price
Result: Unplaced at SP $6.00. Bustled forward at the start. Struggled from the turn and finished out the back. Outcome -1.00 Units.
Moonee Valley Race 7 No.6 Ruomaza @ $5 (1.25 UNITS WIN)
Result: 3rd at SP $5.00. From the back, ridden hard from the 600m mark and while finished well down the middle of the track, was too far back and winner, Calibiration, was just too good. Outcome -1.25 Units.
🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆Moonee Valley Race 7 No.9 Calibration @ $3.20 (2.28 UNITS WIN)
Result: 1st at SP $4.20, Best Tote $4.30, Betfair $4.37. From midfield, raced up four wide from the 600m mark, hit the lead at top of the straight and never looked like losing from there to win by over a length. Outcome +5.02 Units.
↗️Moonee Valley Race 8 No.5 Prevailing Winds @ $5 (1.25 UNITS WIN) ***
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $8.50
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Thu 15 November
Outlay 3.23 Units. Return 5.76 Units. Loss of 2.53 Units (78% POT)
(Running Totals: Outlay: 257.75 Units Return: 230.90 Units Loss: 26.85 UNITS 10% LOT)
Seymour Race 3 No.5 Inala Max @ $12 (watch price)
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $9.00.
Seymour Race 5 No.7 Converging @ $5.50 (1.12 UNITS WIN). NB: Has been drifting all morning with the support for our selection #4 Macstryker, above. We suggest that you don’t bet until just before the race and ONLY if the price is < $8.50 in the market, and then bet to that price … eg $8 will be an outlay officially of 0.72 UNITS WIN).
Result: 4th at SP $5.50. From the back of the field, was widest on the turn and grinded to the line without ever looking like a winner. Outcome -1.12 Units.
🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆Pakenham Race 7 No.8 No Reward @ $8 (0.72 UNITS WIN) - watch price
Result: 1st at SP $4.80, Best Tote $5.40, Betfair $5.11. From the back rode for luck on the rails. As leaders got off the fence, No Reward was able to just hold on for the win without ever going around a horse. Outcome +5.76 Units.
Pakenham Race 7 No.14 River Jewel @ $4.60 (1.39 UNITS WIN)
Result: 3rd at SP $6.00. From the back was widest on the turn and battled in the straight to finish a very close third. May have even hit the front for a stride or two in the straight, thought couldn’t hold on. Outcome -1.39 Units.
Wed 14 November
Outlay 4.29 Units. Return 0.00 Units. Loss of 4.29 Units (100% LOT)
(Running Totals: Outlay: 254.52 Units Return: 225.14 Units Loss: 29.38 UNITS 12% LOT)
Bendigo Race 1 No.2 Dunmam @ $2.40 (2.5 UNITS WIN)
Result: Unplaced at SP $2.25. Was in the 1-1 position during the run but when under pressure fell away and finished at the back. Outcome -2.50 Units.
Bendigo Race 6 No.6 Mr Genoa @ $3.80 (1.79 UNITS WIN)
Result: Unplaced at SP $5.50. Looked to be going okay at the turn midfield but when asked for a run had nothing to give and finished out the back. Outcome -1.79 Units.
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Tue 13 November
Outlay 4.23 Units. Return 6.75 Units. Profit of 2.52 Units (60% POT)
(Running Totals: Outlay: 250.23 Units Return: 225.14 Units Loss: 25.09 UNITS 10% LOT)
Hamilton Race 1 No.3 Ourlordofwar @ $3.90 (1.73 UNITS WIN)
🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆Result: 1st at SP $2.20, Best Tote $2.40, Betfair $2.44. Lead from start to finish. Was put under pressure from about 150m out but able to hold on relatively comfortably for the win. Did open in the markets at $12.00 so big push in the market. Outcome +6.75 Units.
Hamilton Race 2 No.6 Garbo @ $3 (2.5 UNITS WIN)
Result: Unplaced at SP $3.90. Was three wide midfield majority of the trip and did drop out early in the straight. Outcome -2.50 Units.
Mon 12 November
Outlay 3.27 Units. Return 0.00 Units. Loss of 3.27 Units (100% LOT)
(Running Totals: Outlay: 246.00 Units Return: 218.39 Units Loss: 27.61 UNITS 11% LOT)
Kilmore Race 4 No.8 Skalacci @ $7.50 (0.77 UNIT WIN) ***
Result: 4th at SP $7.50. Followed the winner majority of the race but there was always a gap which Skalacci couldn’t reduce in the straight. Outcome -0.77 Units.
Kilmore Race 5 No.6 Allspice @ $2.90 (2.5 UNITS WIN)
Result: 2nd at SP $6.00. Decent drift as market came for the new favourite and eventual winner Etana. After sitting in second, outside the leader and winner, was dropped at the turn and did well to hang on for second. Outcome -2.50 Units.
Kilmore Race 8 No.11 Cheeky Reward @ $11 - watch price, we’ll only back it if it makes it into our < $8.50 price range.
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $9.50
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Sun 11 November
Outlay 2.96 Units. Return 6.10 Units. Profit of 3.14 Units (106% POT)
(Running Totals: Outlay: 242.73 Units Return: 218.39 Units Loss: 24.34 UNITS 10% LOT)
Ararat Race 3 No.1 Anythings Possible @ $12 (0.46 UNIT WIN) … started the day @ $7.50 and has drifted, but only due to the sustained support for #3 and #8. So may come back a bit. But John Allen and Weir. I’m not going to let this slip under my guard and I’m recommending it as an official play, the bigger price just makes our outlay less!
Result: Unplaced at SP $26.00. Settled at the back, was wide at the turn but never ran on and never looked a winning hope. Outcome -0.46 Units.
🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆Ararat Race 7 No.8 Choisborder @ $2 (2.5 UNITS WIN)
Result: 1st at SP $2.80, Best Tote $2.90, Betfair $3.03. Got a nice run behind the speed. Came from the back right down the middle of track. Hit the lead at the 100m and then got in a head to head battle with Chippenham though put its head in front and able to salute. Outcome +5.00 Units
Ararat Race 7 No.9 Chippenham @ $4.50 (1.43 UNITS WIN)
Result: 2nd at SP $2.60. Settled in 2nd. Did hit the lead very briefly in the straight before Choisborder joined in and got into a head to head battle but just headed out for 2nd. Outcome -1.43 Units.
Ararat Race 7 No.12 Onehundred Percent @ $12 - watch.
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $21.00.
NB: The price of these selections makes staking a little tricky with an 85% market gauge across the three of them, and 76% across the top 2 - leaving little scope for profit. Maybe the better way to play this is via RewardBet with an outlay like this? That’s my recommendation now, but does depend on market before the race somewhat.
🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆Result: Based on the above, this was our official play on the race. Based on 2.50 Unit bet, we got the exacta which we had for 1.00 unit on which paid on STAB $6.10. Outcome +6.10 Units.
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Sat 10 November
Outlay 7.07 Units. Return 12.78 Units. Profit of 5.71 Units (81% POT)
(Running Totals: Outlay: 239.77 Units Return: 212.29 Units Loss: 27.48 UNITS 11% LOT)
Flemington Race 2 No.5 Lucky For All @ $2.60 (2.5 UNITS WIN)
Result: Unplaced at SP $3.00. Blocked when looking to make its run at the 400m, eventually found room and hit the line alright, though lost its winning chance when blocked for around 100m or so. Outcome -2.50 Units.
Flemington Race 2 No.8 Pleasuring @ $11 - watch price - potential RewardBet?
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $12.00
Flemington Race 2 No.11 Top Prospect @ $18 - watch price - Potential RewardBet?
Result: Non Qualifier - 1st at SP $11.00, Best Tote $11.30, Betfair $13.17.
🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆Flemington Race 3 No.6 Ringerdingding@ $3.30 (2.18 UNITS WIN)
Result: 1st at SP $4.40, Best Tote $3.70, Betfair $4.83. Straighted up bit worse than midfield. Found clear room and exploded at the 200m to finish too strong over the leading pack to win by half a length. Outcome +7.19 Units.
Flemington Race 3 No.12 No Emotion @ $13 - watch price - Potential RewardBet?
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at $13.00
Flemington Race 4 No.5 Ulmann @ $11 - watch price - Potential RewardBet?
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $15.00
Flemington Race 4 No.8 Age Of Fire @ $21 - watch price - Potential RewardBet?
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $31.00
Flemington Race 5 No.14 Ormito @ $41 - Could this be a replay of Thermal Current?
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $41.00
Flemington Race 6 No.5 Wheal Leisure @ $100 - unlikely
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $41.00.
🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆Flemington Race 6 No.7 Kenedna - @ $9.50 - worth a bet here IMO, against official rules.
Result: 1st at SP $10.00, Best Tote $10.90, Betfair $11.72. Qualifier based on comments. Brilliant ride and judgement from the jockey, little Johnny Allen who after having no room, read the race and timed it perfectly, ducked backed to the inside closer to the rail and squeezed through a needle eye opening at about the 200m to explode and take it out by about half a length. Great ride. Outcome +5.59 Units.
Flemington Race 7 No.2 Brave Smash @ $13 … ditto as above
Result: Unplaced at SP $17.00. Qualifier based on comments. Got drifted back after decent start. From the 400m was weaving through the traffic though never a winning hope. Outcome -0.42 Units.
Flemington Race 9 No.16 Dennis @ $31 - not out of if by any means, in an open race.
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $31.00
Fri 09 November
No Selections Today
(Running Totals: Outlay: 232.70 Units Return: 199.51 Units Loss: 33.19 UNITS 14% LOT
Thu 08 November
Outlay 1.79 Units. Return 0.00 Units. Loss of 1.79 Units (100% LOT)
(Running Totals: Outlay: 232.70 Units Return: 199.51 Units Loss: 33.19 UNITS 14% LOT)
Flemington Race 5 No.7 Akkadian @ $8.50 (almost at our price, if it was $8 outlay: 0.67)
Result: Non Qualifier - 4th at SP $8.50.
Flemington Race 5 No.12 Egyptian Gold @ $8 (0.67 UNIT WIN) - watch price
Result: Unplaced at SP $5.50. Settled in third, three wide. Under pressure from the turn, found nothing and dropped back through the field. Outcome -0.67 Units.
Flemington Race 6 No.9 Thermal Current @ $19 - price unlikely
Result: Non Qualifier - 1st at SP $41.00, Best Tote at $33.50, Betfair $70.00.
Flemington Race 7 No.6 Junipal @ $5.50 (1.12 UNITS WIN)
Result: 2nd at SP $7.50. Settled towards the back. Peeled wide on the turn and hit the lead at about the 300m mark and just caught on the line in a very close photo finish from Vow and Declare who came from the back. Outcome -1.12 Units.
Flemington Race 7 No.10 Tavidance @ $8.50 (almost at our price, if it was $8 outlay: 0.67)
Result: Non Qualifier - 3rd at SP $9.50
Wed 07 November
Outlay 2.60 Units. Return 0.00 Units. Loss of 2.60 Units (100% LOT)
(Running Totals: Outlay: 230.91 Units Return: 199.51 Units Loss: 31.40 UNITS 14% LOT)
Kyneton Race 1 No.8 Peta Rose @ $5.50 (1.12 UNITS WIN)
Result: Unplaced at SP $5.00. Vetted prior to the start due to an incident in the barrier which usually doesn’t bode well. Under pressure before the turn in the small field and never sighted in the straight. Outcome -1.12 Units.
Kyneton Race 3 No.4 Declares War @ $10, watch price
Result: Non Qualifier - 3rd at SP $13.00
Kyneton Race 8 No.5 Tall Ship @ $21 - price unlikely
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $31.00
Kyneton Race 8 No.6 Snitzepeg@$4.40 (1.48 UNITS WIN)
Result: Unplaced at SP $3.10. Followed the winner, Another Coldie, for majority of the run until just before the turn when Another Coldie accelerated and Snitzepeg found little. Outcome -1.48 Units.
Kyneton Race 9 No.7 Broadway And First @ $18 - price unlikely
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $21.00
🏆
Tue 06 November
Outlay 18.41 Units. Return 19.50 Units. Profit of 1.09 Units (6% POT)
(Running Totals: Outlay: 228.31 Units Return: 199.51 Units Loss: 28.80 UNITS 13% LOT)
Flemington Race 2 No.7 Hectopascal @ $16 - price unlikely
Result: Non Qualifier – Unplaced at SP $16.00
🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆Flemington Race 2 No.12 One More Try @ $6 (1 UNIT WIN)
Result: 1st at SP $4.80, Best Tote $5.00, Betfair $5.04. Was on the fence on the turn and feared may not get a run. Somehow squeezed through a gap and in the heavy conditions wore down Seductive Miss to salute by approximately ½ a length. Outcome +6.00 Units.
🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆Flemington Race 3 No.10 Fifty Stars @ $3 (2.5 UNITS WIN)
Result: 1st at SP $3.20, Best Tote $3.20, Betfair $3.03. Was three wide the trip with cover and still able to finish off strong on a deaerating track. Good win. Outcome +7.50 Units.
Echuca Race 1 No.2 Chouxter @ $4.20 (1.57 UNITS WIN)
Result: 3rd at SP $5.00. Three wide the trip, did well to get the 3rd on the line but too far back to be a winning threat. Outcome -1.57 Units.
Flemington Race 4 No.4 Etah James@ $20 - price unlikely
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $18.00
Flemington Race 4 No.5 Chequered Flag @ $13, watch price
Result: Non Qualifier – Unplaced at SP $16.00
Flemington Race 4 No.8 Kellstorm @ $19 - price unlikely
Result: Non Qualifier – 4th at SP $15.00
Flemington Race 4 No.11 Azuro @ $6 (1 UNIT WIN)
Result: 3rd at SP $6.50. Good run consider the conditions coming from the back and the middle of the track in the straight but no match for the winner. Outcome -1.00 Unit.
Flemington Race 4 No.12 Steel Prince @ $4.40 (1.48 UNITS WIN)
Result: 2nd at SP $5.00. Joined in well in the straight, hit the lead very briefly at about the 300m mark but winner was too strong coming from the back. Did stuck on well and fought hard for 2nd. Outcome -1.48 Units.
Echuca Race 2 No.5 Malawi Gold @ $9, watch price
Result: 4th at SP $5.00. From the back was widest on the turn and at about the 200m mark, you thought Malwai was a hope but that when he peaked in its run and finished a couple of lengths from the main pack. Outcome -1.25 Units.
Echuca Race 2 No.6 Wild Moon @ $5 (1.25 UNITS WIN)
Result: 2nd at SP $5.50. Was three wide from just before the turn, who kept on finding though the winner found a gap from the back and stormed home to win on the line. Outcome -1.25 Units.
Echuca Race 3 No.3 No Parole @ $9, watch price
Result: Non Qualifier – 4th at SP $20.00
Echuca Race 3 No.8 Beetobee @ $3.50 (2 UNITS WIN)
Result: 3rd at SP $5.00. Got to the outside and just grinded out to the line to nab third o the line. Outcome -2.00 Units.
Echuca Race 3 No.11 Tricky Mix @ $4 (1.67 UNITS WIN)
Result: Unplaced at SP $6.50. After being in the first couple, when the pressure was applied from the turn Tricky Mix found nothing and dropped back through the field. Outcome -1.67 Units.
Flemington Race 8 No.7 Kiwia @ $9, watch price
Result: Non Qualifier – Unplaced at SP $9.00
Flemington Race 8 No.14 Take It Intern @ $6 (1 UNIT WIN)
Result: Unplaced at SP $5.00. Was under hard riding from the turn and unable to make up sufficient ground on the eventual winner who looked good along away from home. Outcome -1.00 Unit.
Echuca Race 6 No.10 Pollinator @ $3.50 (2 UNITS WIN)
Result: Unplaced at SP $4.60. Niggled a long way from home and never sighted in the straight. Outcome -2.00 Units.
Flemington Race 9 No.7 Snitzkraft @ $9, watch price
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $15.00
Flemington Race 10 No.8 So Far Sokool @ $26 - price unlikely
Result: Non Qualifier – Unplaced at SP $19.00
Flemington Race 10 No.16 Split Lip @ $19 - price unlikely
Result: Non Qualifier – Unplaced at SP $21.00
Flemington Race 10 No.17 Spanner Head @ $19 - price unlikely
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $21.00
🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆Morphettville Race 8 No.7 The Gatting Ball @ $6 (1 UNIT WIN)
Result: 1st at SP $4.60, Best Tote $5.00, Betfair $4.94. Nice cart into the race from the 2nd place horse, off the turn, peeled out and just got over the top to salute in blanket finish. Outcome +6.00 Units.
Mon 05 November
Outlay 2.92 Units. Return 0.00 Units. Loss of 2.92 Units (100% POT)
(Running Totals: Outlay: 209.90 Units Return: 180.01 Units Loss: 29.89 UNITS 14% LOT)
Ballarat Race 3 No.6 High Done @ $5 (1.25 UNITS WIN)
Result: 2nd at SP $3.60. Despite a wide run for the majority of the trip, kept on chasing the winner without ever really reducing the margin. Outcome 1.25 Units.
Ballarat Race 3 No.8 Predicated @ $5 (1.25 UNITS WIN)
Result: Late Scratching.
BALLARAT Race 5 No. 4 Misscino @ $4 (1.67 UNITS WIN)
Result: Unplaced at SP $3.90. Coming from the back, never made ground up from the leaders, never looked likely. Disappointing. Outcome -1.67 Units.
🏆🏆
Sun 04 November
Outlay 5.00 Units. Return 7.00 Units. Profit of 2.00 Units (40% POT)
(Running Totals: Outlay: 206.98 Units Return: 180.01 Units Loss: 26.97 UNITS 13% LOT)
Mornington Race 4 No.7 Periscope @ $1.70 (2.5 UNITS WIN)
Result: Unplaced at SP $1.40. Came nicely into the race from just before the turn but didn’t have the acceleration to finish it off. Was a blanket finish between first five or six horses. Disappointing for $1.40 shot. Outcome -2.50 Units.
🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆Mornington Race 8 No.4 Royal Ace @ $2.80 (2.5 UNITS WIN)
Result: 1st at SP $5.50, Best Tote $4.80, Betfair $7.60. From the turn came into the race nicely and knuckled down to the task, wearing down the leaders for a good tough win. Outcome +7.00 Units.
🏆
Sat 03 November
Outlay 5.93 Units. Return 6.75 Units. Profit of 0.82 Units (14% POT)
(Running Totals: Outlay: 201.98 Units Return: 173.01 Units Loss: 28.97 UNITS 14% LOT)
Flemington Race 1 No.11 Saccharo @ $14 (price unlikely)
Result: Non Qualifier - 4th at SP $12.00
Morphettville Race 1 No.1 Ocean Essence @ $5 (1.25 UNITS WIN)
Result: 4th at SP $5.50. Lead and was joined in the lead at the home turn, kept finding until the last 100m when tired late to finish 4th. Outcome -1.25 Units.
Flemington Race 4 No.7 Gallic Chieftain @ $16 (price unlikely)
Result: Non Qualifier - 4th at SP $16.00
Flemington Race 4 No.12 Yogi @ $11 (watch price)
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $12.00
↗️Morphettville Race 3 No.8 Pelonomena @ $8 (0.72 UNIT WIN) (watch price)
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $17.00
🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆Morphettville Race 4 No.8 Oberland @ $2.70 (2.5 UNITS WIN)
Result: 1st at SP $2.80, Best Tote $2.90, Betfair $3.00. Bit of drift late though from running on the back, never looked like losing and won comfortably well. Outcome +6.75 Units.
Flemington Race 7 No.3 Extra Brut @ $10 (watch price)
Result: Non Qualifier - 1st at SP $10.00, Best Tote $12.20, Betfair $12.55.
Flemington Race 7 No.7 Savoie @ $10 (watch price)
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at $12.00
Flemington Race 8 No.11 Cliffs Edge @ $10 (watch price)
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $17.00
Flemington Race 8 No.16 Peaceful State @ $10 (watch price)
Result: Non Qualifier - 3rd at SP $13.00
Flemington Race 8 No.18 Iconoclasm $13 (watch price)
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $14.00
Mortlake Race 6 No.2 Crafty Devil @ $3.30 (2.18 UNITS WIN)
Result: 3rd at SP $5.00. Settled in 3rd, couldn’t run on when leader and winner kicked. Outcome -2.18 Units.
Mortlake Race 6 No.3 Dusk Falls @ $14 (price unlikely)
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $31.00
Flemington Race 9 No.3 Quilista @ $11 (watch price)
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $10.00
Flemington Race 9 No.17 Petrelle @ $11 (watch price)
Result: Non Qualifier - Unplaced at SP $9.00
Flemington Race 8 No.9 Extra Brut @ $9.50 - also SSSS play
Result: 3rd at SP $4.60. Good market support through out the day. Settled at the tail. Followed Blair House and had to go off heels at the 300m mark which lost it about a length and momentum which probably cost it the race. Good run though. Outcome -1.39 Units.
Fri 02 November
Outlay 16.59 Units. Return 9.88 Units. Loss of 6.71 Units (40% LOT)
(Running Totals: Outlay: 196.05 Units Return: 166.26 Units Loss: 29.79 UNITS 15% LOT)
Kilmore Race 1 No.4 Maunahost @ $9.50 (watch price)
Result: Unplaced at SP $6.50. From the back, didn’t come on in the straight and finished at the back. Outcome -0.91 Units.
Race 2 No.5 Skalacci @ $4.60 (1.39 UNITS WIN)
Result: 2nd at SP $3.60. Little bit of a checkered run at start of the straight, though had every chance, there was just one better down the outside. Outcome -1.39 Units
↗️Kilmore Race 3 No.8 Toms Knight @ $8 (0.72 UNIT WIN) (watch price)
Result: Non Qualifier – 1st at SP $8.50, Best Tote $9.50, Betfair $9.14
Kilmore Race 8 No.9 River Jewel @ $3.60 (1.93 UNIT WIN)
Result: Unplaced at SP $4.20. Behind the favorite, though the favorite couldn’t take him into the race and from then was too far back. Outcome -1.93 Units.
Moonee Valley Race 1 No.10 Lope De Field @ $7 (0.84 UNIT WIN) (watch price)
Result: 4th at SP $7.50. On the turn took the rails and for a stride or two looked a winning hope just couldn’t finish off. Outcome -0.84 Units.
Moonee Valley Race 2 No.6 Our Chiquilla @ $5 (1.25 UNIT WIN)
Result: 2nd at SP $4.80. Got shuffled back mid race though ran on well in the straight and finished well on the outside though winner won comfortably Outcome -1.25 Units.
🏆🏆🏆Moonee Valley Race 3 No.2 Kaplumpich @ $2.3 (2.5 UNIT WIN)
Result: Dead Heat 1st at SP $1.08. Best Tote $1.05, Betfair $1.21. Since Dead Heat for first winning dividends halved. Moved up on the straight and should have won comfortably, got a little lost / looked around when hit the front though. Darren Weir suggested blinkers will be applied next start. Also thought there was gap in our favor, though judges decided otherwise. Outcome +2.88 Units.
Moonee Valley Race 4 No.7 Truly High @ $3 (2.5 UNITS WIN)
Result: 3rd at SP $2.90. Coming from the back, hooked out from just before the turn and was solid from the back. Leader just too strong. Outcome -2.50 Units.
Moonee Valley Race 4 No.9 San Remo @ $7 (0.77 UNIT WIN) (watch price)
Result: Unplaced at SP $5.00. Settled towards the front, though got headed at turn and couldn’t finish off. Outcome -0.77 Units.
Moonee Valley Race 6 No.6 Friar Fox @ $2.35 (2.5 UNITS WIN)
Result: 2nd at SP $2.05. After early support, had a late drift. Winner at SP $11.00 – which was a 5 Point Special – and lead all the way, Friar Fox though ran on well from the back, leader just had too much of a start. Outcome -2.50 Units.
Moonee Valley Race 6 No.9 Waking Moment @ $13 (price unlikely)
Result: Non Qualifier – 4th at SP $21.00.
🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆Moonee Valley Race 8 No.9 Daguilar @ $3.50 (2 UNITS WIN)
Result: 1st at SP $3.20, Best Tote $3.40, Betfair $3.50. Came from the back, widest on turn and shot away from the 200m mark to win well. Still a bit to learn, at times in the straight was racing with its head to the side. Outcome +7.00 Units.
Thu 01 November
Outlay 8.84 Units. Return 6.95 Units. Loss of 1.89 Units (21% LOT)
(Running Totals: Outlay: 179.46 Units Return: 156.38 Units Loss: 23.08 UNITS 13% LOT)
Geelong Race 1 No.7 Zancada @ $3.10 (2.59 UNITS WIN)
Result: 3rd at SP $3.60. Was on the move before the turn as the winner took control and put a nice gap on the field. Found the line well though no match for the winner. Outcome -2.59 Units.
📫Geelong Race 4 No.1 Nations @ $4.20 (1.57 UNITS WIN)
Result: 3rd at SP $3.30. Kicked on the turn had a couple of lengths lead, though couldn’t finish off and was putting in the short strides with about 100m to go and done just before the line. Outcome -1.57 Units.
🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆Geelong Race 4 No.3 Mr Quickie @ $3.60 (1.93 UNITS WIN)
Result: 1st at SP $3.80, Best Tote $4.00, Betfair $5.00. Come from the back down the outside and as the leader Nations, was putting in the short strides, Mr Quickie was storming home and got up on the line. Outcome +5.02 Units.
Geelong Race 5 No.7 Raffine @ $6 (1 UNIT WIN) - watch price
Result: 2nd at SP $7.00. Made ground before the turn though leader kicked and put up a winning margin which Raffine, try as it might couldn’t chase down. Outcome -1.00 Unit.
Geelong Race 7 No.6 Zuers @ $7 (0.84 UNIT WIN) - watch price
Result: 4th at SP $4.40. Kept to the rails after settling fourth and battled away to the line to finish 4th. Outcome -0.84 Units.
Geelong Race 7 No.12 Cheeky Reward @ $6.50 (0.91 UNIT WIN) - watch price
Result: Unplaced at $8.00. After sitting outside the leader who kicked on the turn, couldn’t match the pace and from there battled to line. Outcome -0.91 Units.
